Protest = Conspiracy x Telegram? The Mobilizing Effect of Conspiracy Beliefs and the Role of Social Media Use

Over the course of the pandemic, conspiracy narratives became widely present in public discourse and reignited the discussion on the behavioural implications of conspiracy beliefs. Yet, empirical evidence on whether conspiracy beliefs translate into protest behaviour is mixed, and it remains unclear how social media functions as mobilizing or acceleration agents spreading conspiracy narratives and calls for action. To address this gap, we employ a two-wave panel survey conducted in 2021 in Germany, the country that experienced the earliest and most violent pandemic-related protests. We contrast the survey data analysis with a longitudinal content analysis of the most relevant social medium for COVID-19 protest groups, Telegram. This approach allows us to relate the individual-level effects to the communication dynamics online. We find that conspiracy beliefs and Telegram use indeed explain protest participation. This finding is supported by the content analysis showing that conspiracy narratives and calls for political action were shared to a great extent. However, we only find limited support for an accelerating effect of social media use as well as a stabilizing trend in communication dynamics over time. These results indicate general ceiling effects concerning the role of social media as mobilizing agents in protest dynamics. Overall, this study emphasizes/consolidates the great relevance of conspiracy narratives and beliefs for the democratic order - specifically during the COVID-19 crisis an example of a health crisis in the digitization age.